Graycell Advisors - President Donald Trump - credit: TIME

Lessons from a Trump Presidency

May 16, 2017 Controversies are now typical of the new administration. In spite of jolting political news, the market remains in a steady uptrend. Earnings and growth trump political turmoil as long as economic implications are limited. The market is patient, but the patience is not finite. Staying the course instead of predicting corrections has…

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Graycell Advisors - New York Stock Exchange

Is The Stock Market’s Hour Up?

April 26, 2017 Market professionals are suggesting an imminent correction for some time. Key measures are indicating overvaluation. But the market still marches on. Market Timing is a costly exercise, particularly for individual investors Staying the course has worked thus far In our previous article, The Relentless Market And Missed Calls, we had highlighted how…

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The Relentless Stock Market And Missed Calls!

March 24, 2017 Brilliant professional money managers fail in their market timing. For individuals it is even harder to engage in market timing. An eye on the three key supports for the stock market can be helpful. The market may be closer to a pullback, but the Bull is not ready to rollover yet.  …

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Graycell Advisors - Warren Buffett

Buffett Makes It Clear!

Buffett’s Recent Investments Suggest Confidence In Economic Growth. The Economy Has Legs and So Does the Market. Uninterrupted Market Rise Raises Probability of A Normal Pullback. Even Though March Has the Potential to Be Volatile, the Overall Secular Uptrend Remains Intact. Warren Buffett is a peerless value investor. With his recent sweeping investment in the…

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Graycell Advisors

The Stock Market Is Heading Higher

February 08, 2017 A change of administration typically means new policies that impact economic growth The first two weeks of the new administration have been fairly controversial The stock market has consolidated and absorbed the early news flow as it edges higher Is it time for a change in the stock market trend or can it still…

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Graycell Advisors - Small Cap Stocks

Small Cap Stocks Breathe Fire!

January 22, 2017 Small Cap stocks had a strong 2016 after a slow start The enduring power of Small Cap performance over years should factor into portfolio decisions Investors must consider some exposure to Small Caps as part of a broader portfolio strategy A favorable environment exists for Small Cap stocks to continue performing strongly…

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Steve Cohen - Bloomberg

Legendary Investor Had An Unlikely Tough 2016 – 1% Return!

January 18, 2017 Steve Cohen is one of the most successful hedge fund managers of the last 25 years. His firm, Point72 Asset Management, had a difficult last year as the portfolio returned about 1 percent in 2016. This was the second-worst performance for the gifted investor, with the earlier worst year being a decline…

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Stock Market - Graycell Advisors

Still Waiting For A Correction? Stock Market Outlook For 2017

December 20, 2016 Investors have been fairly cautious in the second-half, with money managers and analysts predicting an imminent correction. All key constructs of stock market valuation have continued to be supportive of higher valuations Markets in 2017 have a lot going for them but eventually, it will come down to policies and legislation that…

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US Stock Market - Graycell Advisors

Living In A Drawdown State – 60% Of The Time

Drawdowns are inevitable and more common than investors realize. Nearly two-thirds of the time a portfolio will be in a Drawdown, referred to as a State of Regret. Nearly 40% of the time, the Drawdown will be greater than 20%. Drawdowns can take a psychological toll and awareness of the likelihood of such Drawdowns can…

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Stock Market - Graycell Advisors

Return Of The Fundamentals – 3 Reasons For Stocks To Head Higher

November 11, 2017 Economy and earnings can’t be ignored. Monetary policy remains accommodative. Investor sentiment has improved markedly towards assuming risk in stocks. Higher stock prices and new stock market highs expected   It may be instructive to keep in mind the words of noted British investor Sir John Templeton, as we approach a new investing period for stocks following the US elections. The…

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Stocks & Politics - Graycell Advisors

Madam Or Mister President – Pricing A Presidency

November 5, 2016 The stock market begins to factor in a non-Clinton Presidency. Late momentum allows Trump to close gap with Clinton, forcing the stock market to recalibrate. A spurt in risk averseness has led to indiscriminate selling. Healthcare and Biotech stocks do have a future, not being reflected in current valuations. Prudent to hold…

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Stock Market - Graycell Advisors

The State Of The Market 7 Days Before Elections

November 1, 2016 Earnings are coming in better than expected by the stock market, with the S&P 500 companies reversing an over year-long decline during Q3 itself. The final hustle begins on the Election front and projections thus far appear to be in sync with stock market expectations. But watch out for Halloween surprises, aka…

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Graycell Advisors - Stock Newsletters

Trading Strategy Exacerbates Market Turmoil

October 17, 2016 Recently, Robin Wigglesworth of Financial Times wrote an interesting article about some automated systematic investing strategies being pursued by institutions that add to the volatility in the stock market. These strategies maintain a certain level of volatility in the portfolio. When the stock market declines and the volatility pierces the threshold or…

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Stock Market Outlook - Graycell Advisors

It’s October, And The Stock Market Has Not Given Up Yet!

OCTOBER 13, 2016 Attention shifts from US elections towards earnings Third quarter earnings to be supportive of stock valuations Monetary policy to assume greater importance later in November Uptrend remains in place, with earnings expectations of key importance in determining stock market direction The stock market has continued to edge higher, supported by an ongoing…

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Julian Robertson, picture by Bloomberg

Hedge Fund Legend Notes Industry’s Hard Struggle To Generate Returns

SEPTEMBER 29, 2016 Julian Robertson, a legendary hedge fund manager who founded one of the most successful hedge funds, Tiger Management, noted in a recent Bloomberg interview that the industry faces one of the toughest times encountered in his 40-year career, to generate returns and maintain the fee structure. The 84-year hedge fund manager who founded Tiger…

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Federal Reserve Policy Bolsters Case To Stay With Stocks

SEPTEMBER 23, 2016 The case for staying the course with stocks was bolstered following the FED’s ongoing pause. As earnings season arrives, technology to power Nasdaq Higher. October can see stock market gains interspersed with sharp volatility from swings in election forecast. November is favorable, but generally driven by the election outcome.   “Investors should…

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Understanding Our Investing Biases – Part 2

SEPTEMBER 21, 2016 Investors are not rational and have to deal with biases. Investing biases can cost us significant return over time. Disposition, Confirmation, and Anchoring are few other biases with adverse consequences. Biases can be managed to improve investment performance. As part of our writings on Systematic Investing, we continue with a look at…

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Understanding Our Investing Biases – Part 1

SEPTEMBER 17, 2017 Investors are not rational and have to deal with biases. Investing biases can cost us significant return over time. Loss Aversion, Confidence, and Bandwagon are few of the biases we possess. Biases can be managed to improve investment performance.   As part of our writing on systematic investing, which started with an…

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Stock Portfolio - Graycell Advisors

Staying The Course!
Stocks Remain Attractive

SEPTEMBER 13, 2016 Federal Reserve to shift out any monetary policy change to December or beyond. A pre-emptive increase can turn the intended medicine to poison. Volatility to remain elevated and some consolidation to occur. At this time US stock allocation should be maintained.   “Over August, we believe stocks will continue to perform strongly…

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UBS Logo - Graycell Advisors

Why UBS Is Hiring So Many Quants?

SEPTEMBER 12, 2016 This recent headline on Bloomberg caught my attention. “There’s a Simple Reason Why UBS Is Hiring So Many Quants” The Swiss financial giant UBS Group, which oversees nearly $2 trillion, has in the past couple of years doubled the number of quantitative analysts (quants) working in the office of its Chief Investment Officer,…

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Active Management Loses Ground

SEPTEMBER 09, 2016 Most Active Managers Are Unable to Outperform benchmark S&P500 Small-cap managers face an even more uphill battle with 90% underperforming S&P600 There is room to consider model-based Systematic Investment Strategy Is Active Management Continuing to Lose Its Heft in Generating Market Alpha? The S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC publishes a tabulation of…

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With Market At All-Time Highs,
September Can Be A Month Of Consolidation

AUGUST 9, 2016 Markets have overcome systemic shocks to record all-time highs. Rally has begin to shift towards being earnings-driven as well, rather than being interest-rate driven. September could be a month of pause and consolidation as interest rate decision looms. Exposure to stocks has been a prudent strategy and remains so going forward. The…

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Graycell Advisors - Smallcap Stocks

Smallcap Stocks are Charging Ahead

JULY 14, 2016 Small-cap stocks have risen strongly from their February lows Risk appetite remains strong, and portfolio exposure to this dynamic segment is prudent Favorable Fed policy and signs of a steadier economy will continue to push small-caps higher over the course of the Summer After the surprise result in Brexit polls, when the…

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Graycell Advisors - Brexit

Brexit Doesn’t Mean An Exit On Stocks

JUNE 30, 2016 Interest Rates to Remain Lower for Longer Economic Growth was Stronger in Q1 than Expected Even though Brexit Puts Pressure on Global Growth, How Much and When Remain Unknown Brexit Doesn’t Mean an Exit on Stocks One thing that became certain after the British referendum favoring an Exit from the Eurozone, popularly…

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Graycell Advisors - Federal Reserve

It’s The Fed’s Move Once Again

Federal Reserve will update its “dot plot” to reflect the median rate hikes for 2016, and that number is widely expected to come down to 3 from 4 A more settled interest rate picture, and continuing economic growth should create an environment for a durable rally into the year We believe the next rate hike…

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The Fed’s Done For Now – Market And Smallcap Viewpoint For 2016

We anticipate the market decline to provide fresh legs for a new rally later in the first quarter and early second quarter For the year, we anticipate a positive year, with single-digit returns for S&P 500 and Nasdaq The market expectation we laid out in our January 2015 commentary, and reiterated in April and September,…

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The Song Of The Fed: Market Outlook And Smallcap Commentary

SEPTEMBER 16, 2015 The market expectation we laid out in our January 2015 commentary and reiterated in April 2015 second quarter commentary was borne out from late-June through August. As risk-appetite continues to shrink and swivel to risk-averseness, small cap stocks will bear the brunt and underperform the larger caps in the third quarter and…

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Viewpoint: Stock Market Outlook And Smallcap Performance In 2015

Small cap stocks underperformed significantly during 2014, compared to larger caps. As the US economy strengthens while key international economies struggle, small caps are well-positioned. We anticipate small caps to outperform larger caps in 2015, but returns will be restrained compared to years past. The small cap stocks put in a forceful effort in December,…

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