Stocks Get Closer To A Surge

Interest rate policy is getting closer to a step-down.More Federal Reserve officials are focused on the risks of sharply rising rates.Inflation can fall rapidly next year due to the lagging

Living In A Drawdown State
60% Of The Time

Bear markets bring into focus the inevitability of portfolio drawdowns.Drawdowns are more common than investors realize.About two-thirds of the time a portfolio will be in a drawdown state, referred to

Interest Rate and Inflation Roller Coaster

Where Do Stocks Go
As The FED Goes Tighter For Longer?

The Federal Reserve continues to talk-up its resolve in taming inflation.While a 75 basis point increase is baked in for late September, it is likely that the November meeting brings

The Resurgence Of Small Caps – 2021 Outlook

An economic rebound in 2021 should benefit small-cap companies.Monetary and fiscal policy alignment to boost economic growth.Small-cap stocks can be the high growth cyclicals and outperform after lagging in 2020.A

graycelladvisors.com ~ Small Cap growth 2020

Small Caps Record A New High, Finally, With More To Come

Small caps finally record a new high after two years and turn positive for the year.Vaccine progress is raising expectations of a more robust and durable economic recovery in 2021,

The Market Is Biding Time

The market is biding time waiting for the election outcome. Quite likely, it may be Biden's time.A blue wave can be most beneficial to the market at this time due

Graycell Advisors ~ New York Stock Exchange - Stock Market

Stocks To March HigherIrrespective Of Election Outcome

Stocks to move higher irrespective of Presidential election outcome.Prominent near-term risk is of a contested election.If polling lead stays steady or widens, stocks to respond positively.Stocks are well-placed to have

Stock Market’s Next Move

The market remains unsettled but is moving higher as it expects good things to happen after the hot spots peak.The impact of the pandemic will keep expanding deeper into the

PrudentBiotech.com ~ Economy and Coronavirus

Reviving A Comatose Economy

A deliberate slowing down of the economy is in progress in order to preserve it.The key question remains how soon can we start recovering.The expected $2 trillion stimulus package will

The Trade War Has An Upside

Recession fears fueled by an inverting yield curve has investors scrambling for cover The US-China trade war has convulsed the market with unexpected bouts of severe volatility The trade war

GraycellAdvisors.com ~ Yuan-Dollar - Getty Images

Sell Or Hold As Volatility Strikes

Unexpected tariffs catch the market by surpriseSharp selloff accompanies escalating trade conflict with ChinaWhile the negative consequences of rising trade friction are significant, there are a couple of positives which

Yield Inversion Is Not Stomping Out A Bull Market Yet

The Zero Spread is providing a signal of the building risk of an economic recession. A substantial lag exists between yield curve inversion and a recession, and a key

Does The Bull Survive?
Stock Market Outlook 2019

Intense volatility in the final quarter eroded double-digit gains last year Fears of a recession or a sharp economic slowdown in 2019 are inconsistent with data and most likely

GraycellAdvisors.com ~ Conflict - White House and Federal Reserve

So We Got Ourselves A Bear. Now Lets Go Find A Recession.

Stock market indexes and sectors have slipped 20% to 40% from their highs. But the economy is heading for moderation, not a recession. The bear market has been created

GraycellAdvisors.com ~ Stock Market Outlook

This Stock Market Reset Requires Patience

Halloween is coming, but the goblins seem to have already arrived and lost their way into the stock market. And they're creating havoc! The relentless volatility and a drip of

A Federal Reserve Jolt

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent comments about future rate hikes are being perceived to be more hawkish. With interest rate risk rising, short-term volatility has increased further in a

Graycell Advisors - Federal Reserve Bank

An Upheaval – Systematic Disciplined Thinkers Toll The Bell!

On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, deep thinkers predict a potential crisis that can lead to social and political upheavals. Monetary policy will be a key

Small Cap Stocks Are Rising. Biotechs Can’t Be Far Behind!

While much attention is being riveted on the S&P 500 new all-time high eclipsing the January one, small cap stocks accomplished that in May. Small cap stocks are in

GraycellAdvisors.com ~ Stock Market Outlook 2018

Second Half Stock Market Outlook: What Now After Double-Digit Gains?

Earnings fountain created many opportunities in the first-half, even though index returns were relatively restrained. During the first-half, the market overcame a tide of negative sentiment, including a breaking

GraycellAdvisors.com ~ New York Stock Exchange - Stock Market

A Short Case For A Longer Term

The stock market is volatile but still rewarding Most investors should favor a longer-term time frame as the stock market again records new highs after recovering from the first quarter

Small Caps Charge Bodes Well For The Stock Market

Small cap stocks record fresh all-time highs leading the broader market indexes higher for the first time in a couple of years Small cap performance suggests an underlying risk

Small Cap Stocks: The Bright Spot In A Challenging Market

Stock market volatility is disruptive but has not damaged the markets Key supports remain favorable for the primary uptrend Growing political risk is a bigger threat to the market

GraycellAdvisors.com ~ Stock Market To Rise Again

Stock Market: It’s Not Over Yet

Stock market gored by a sharp spike in yields. Rising inflationary expectations feed into the fear of an aggressive monetary policy beyond current expectation. A cyclical adjustment as we

When The Bulls Growl & The Bears Moo! Stock Market Outlook 2018

Stocks remain in a major uptrend. Staying the course worked great in 2017 and remains an effective strategy even now. Witnessing a renewal of business cycle expansion, which can

Investor Biases. Be Aware!

November 14, 2017 We can be irrational investors and have to be aware of our biases. Investing biases can cost us significant returns over time. Group Thinking, Loss Aversion, and

Systematic Investing Works!

November 07, 2017 Systematic Investing, using quantitative models, continues to grow as it addresses key drawback of active investing - behavioral biases Behavioral economics continues to provide growing evidence of

The Small Cap Rush!

October 10, 2017 After a sleepy start, small cap stocks have turned up the heat. Corporate tax cut proposal triggered the rally. The enduring power of small cap relative outperformance

GraycellAdvisors.com ~ Capitol Hill ~ Tax Cuts

Move Over Yellen! It’s Tax Cut Time!

September 29, 2017 Yellen remains steadfast on the interest rate path Stock market takes the higher probability of December rate rise in its stride The health care repeals effort fizzle

Will The Federal Reserve Send The Market Higher?

September 19, 2017 Federal Reserve begins an important meeting on Tuesday with implications for the stock market Start date for the Balance Sheet Rollback program to be announced Federal Reserve's

A Partial Stock Market Eclipse Maybe, But Not A Total One!

August 30, 2017 Entering a period of elevated risk from unrealized policy expectations, budget ceiling debate, and Federal Reserve's quantitative easing reversal September and October are the months to be

Graycell Advisors - Federal Reserve - Monetary Policy

Monetary Policy Reset At The Federal Reserve

Monetary policy became more aggressive last month with the announcement of the balance sheet normalization program Emerging evidence now points to a willingness to reconsider further rate increases based

Will The Federal Reserve Avoid A Slowdown?

June 29, 2017 Market fundamentals remain stable with earnings momentum and a steady economy Monetary policy experiencing a material change as the Federal Reserve outlined a program to reverse quantitative

Graycell Advisors - President Donald Trump - credit: TIME

Lessons from a Trump Presidency

May 16, 2017 Controversies are now typical of the new Trump administration. In spite of jolting political news, the market remains in a steady uptrend. Earnings and growth trump

Graycell Advisors - New York Stock Exchange

Is The Stock Market’s Hour Up?

April 26, 2017 Market professionals are suggesting an imminent correction for some time. Key measures are indicating overvaluation. But the market still marches on. Market Timing is a costly exercise,

The Relentless Stock Market And Missed Calls!

March 24, 2017 Brilliant professional money managers fail in their market timing. For individuals it is even harder to engage in market timing. An eye on the three key supports

Buffett Makes It Clear!

Buffett's Recent Investments Suggest Confidence In Economic Growth. The Economy Has Legs and So Does the Market. Uninterrupted Market Rise Raises Probability of A Normal Pullback. Even Though March

The Stock Market Is Heading Higher

February 08, 2017 A change of administration typically means new policies that impact economic growth The first two weeks of the new administration have been fairly controversial The stock market

Small Cap Stocks Breathe Fire!

January 22, 2017 Small Cap stocks had a strong 2016 after a slow start The enduring power of Small Cap performance over years should factor into portfolio decisions Investors must

Legendary Investor Had An Unlikely Tough 2016 – 1% Return!

January 18, 2017 Steve Cohen is one of the most successful hedge fund managers of the last 25 years. His firm, Point72 Asset Management, had a difficult last year as the

Still Waiting For A Correction? Stock Market Outlook For 2017

December 20, 2016 Investors have been fairly cautious in the second-half, with money managers and analysts predicting an imminent correction. All key constructs of stock market valuation have continued to

Living In A Drawdown State – 60% Of The Time

Drawdowns are inevitable and more common than investors realize. Nearly two-thirds of the time a portfolio will be in a Drawdown, referred to as a State of Regret. Nearly

Return Of The Fundamentals – 3 Reasons For Stocks To Head Higher

November 11, 2017 Economy and earnings can't be ignored. Monetary policy remains accommodative. Investor sentiment has improved markedly towards assuming risk in stocks. Higher stock prices and new stock market highs expected It may be instructive to keep

Madam Or Mister President – Pricing A Presidency

November 5, 2016 The stock market begins to factor in a non-Clinton Presidency. Late momentum allows Trump to close gap with Clinton, forcing the stock market to recalibrate. A spurt

The State Of The Market 7 Days Before Elections

November 1, 2016 Earnings are coming in better than expected by the stock market, with the S&P 500 companies reversing an over year-long decline during Q3 itself. The final hustle

Trading Strategy Exacerbates Market Turmoil

October 17, 2016 Recently, Robin Wigglesworth of Financial Times wrote an interesting article about some automated systematic investing strategies being pursued by institutions that add to the volatility in the stock

Stock Market Outlook - Graycell Advisors

It’s October, And The Stock Market Has Not Given Up Yet!

OCTOBER 13, 2016 Attention shifts from US elections towards earnings Third quarter earnings to be supportive of stock valuations Monetary policy to assume greater importance later in November Uptrend remains

Hedge Fund Legend Notes Industry’s Hard Struggle To Generate Returns

SEPTEMBER 29, 2016 Julian Robertson, a legendary hedge fund manager who founded one of the most successful hedge funds, Tiger Management, noted in a recent Bloomberg interview that the industry faces

Federal Reserve Policy Bolsters Case To Stay With Stocks

SEPTEMBER 23, 2016 The case for staying the course with stocks was bolstered following the FED's ongoing pause. As earnings season arrives, technology to power Nasdaq Higher. October can see

Understanding Our Investing Biases – Part 2

SEPTEMBER 21, 2016 Investors are not rational and have to deal with biases. Investing biases can cost us significant return over time. Disposition, Confirmation, and Anchoring are few other biases

Understanding Our Investing Biases – Part 1

SEPTEMBER 17, 2017 Investors are not rational and have to deal with biases. Investing biases can cost us significant return over time. Loss Aversion, Confidence, and Bandwagon are few of

Staying The Course!
Stocks Remain Attractive

SEPTEMBER 13, 2016 Federal Reserve to shift out any monetary policy change to December or beyond. A pre-emptive increase can turn the intended medicine to poison. Volatility to remain elevated

Why UBS Is Hiring So Many Quants?

SEPTEMBER 12, 2016 This recent headline on Bloomberg caught my attention. "There's a Simple Reason Why UBS Is Hiring So Many Quants" The Swiss financial giant UBS Group, which oversees nearly $2 trillion, has

Active Management Loses Ground

SEPTEMBER 09, 2016 Most Active Managers Are Unable to Outperform benchmark S&P500 Small-cap managers face an even more uphill battle with 90% underperforming S&P600 There is room to consider model-based

With Market At All-Time Highs,
September Can Be A Month Of Consolidation

AUGUST 9, 2016 Markets have overcome systemic shocks to record all-time highs. Rally has begin to shift towards being earnings-driven as well, rather than being interest-rate driven. September could be

Smallcap Stocks are Charging Ahead

JULY 14, 2016 Small-cap stocks have risen strongly from their February lows Risk appetite remains strong, and portfolio exposure to this dynamic segment is prudent Favorable Fed policy and signs

Brexit Doesn’t Mean An Exit On Stocks

JUNE 30, 2016 Interest Rates to Remain Lower for Longer Economic Growth was Stronger in Q1 than Expected Even though Brexit Puts Pressure on Global Growth, How Much and When

It’s The Fed’s Move Once Again

Federal Reserve will update its “dot plot” to reflect the median rate hikes for 2016, and that number is widely expected to come down to 3 from 4 A

The Fed’s Done For Now – Market And Smallcap Viewpoint For 2016

We anticipate the market decline to provide fresh legs for a new rally later in the first quarter and early second quarter For the year, we anticipate a positive

The Song Of The Fed: Market Outlook And Smallcap Commentary

SEPTEMBER 16, 2015 The market expectation we laid out in our January 2015 commentary and reiterated in April 2015 second quarter commentary was borne out from late-June through August. As

Viewpoint: Stock Market Outlook And Smallcap Performance In 2015

Small cap stocks underperformed significantly during 2014, compared to larger caps. As the US economy strengthens while key international economies struggle, small caps are well-positioned. We anticipate small caps