The Stock Marketâs Big Question
The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes after 10 consecutive increases.Fed's projections indicate two additional rate hikes are possible.The market has been resilient and continues to trend higher after the meeting,
The Market Waits
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point to manage inflation, but faces a conundrum.The Federal Reserve has opened a new short-term loan facility to address a liquidity
Market’s Biggest Week This Year
As The Fed Meets
The unfolding banking crisis has been shaking financial markets and contributing to a negative tone in the stock market.Recession risk has risen as the banking crisis envelops more banks.The Federal
Opportunities Abound
Small Cap Outlook 2023
Small caps outperformed the Nasdaq Composite last year as stocks fell due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation.Market fears are mounting that the economy may slip into a
Stocks Get Closer To A Surge
Interest rate policy is getting closer to a step-down.More Federal Reserve officials are focused on the risks of sharply rising rates.Inflation can fall rapidly next year due to the lagging
Living In A Drawdown State
60% Of The Time
Bear markets bring into focus the inevitability of portfolio drawdowns.Drawdowns are more common than investors realize.About two-thirds of the time a portfolio will be in a drawdown state, referred to
Where Do Stocks Go
As The FED Goes Tighter For Longer?
The Federal Reserve continues to talk-up its resolve in taming inflation.While a 75 basis point increase is baked in for late September, it is likely that the November meeting brings
The Resurgence Of Small Caps – 2021 Outlook
An economic rebound in 2021 should benefit small-cap companies.Monetary and fiscal policy alignment to boost economic growth.Small-cap stocks can be the high growth cyclicals and outperform after lagging in 2020.A
Small Caps Record A New High, Finally, With More To Come
Small caps finally record a new high after two years and turn positive for the year.Vaccine progress is raising expectations of a more robust and durable economic recovery in 2021,
The Market Is Biding Time
The market is biding time waiting for the election outcome. Quite likely, it may be Biden's time.A blue wave can be most beneficial to the market at this time due
Stocks To March HigherIrrespective Of Election Outcome
Stocks to move higher irrespective of Presidential election outcome.Prominent near-term risk is of a contested election.If polling lead stays steady or widens, stocks to respond positively.Stocks are well-placed to have
Stock Market’s Next Move
The market remains unsettled but is moving higher as it expects good things to happen after the hot spots peak.The impact of the pandemic will keep expanding deeper into the
Reviving A Comatose Economy
A deliberate slowing down of the economy is in progress in order to preserve it.The key question remains how soon can we start recovering.The expected $2 trillion stimulus package will
The Trade War Has An Upside
Recession fears fueled by an inverting yield curve has investors scrambling for cover The US-China trade war has convulsed the market with unexpected bouts of severe volatility The trade war
Sell Or Hold As Volatility Strikes
Unexpected tariffs catch the market by surpriseSharp selloff accompanies escalating trade conflict with ChinaWhile the negative consequences of rising trade friction are significant, there are a couple of positives which
Yield Inversion Is Not Stomping Out A Bull Market Yet
The Zero Spread is providing a signal of the building risk of an economic recession.
A substantial lag exists between yield curve inversion and a recession, and a key
Does The Bull Survive?
Stock Market Outlook 2019
Intense volatility in the final quarter eroded double-digit gains last year
Fears of a recession or a sharp economic slowdown in 2019 are inconsistent with data and most likely
So We Got Ourselves A Bear. Now Lets Go Find A Recession.
Stock market indexes and sectors have slipped 20% to 40% from their highs. But the economy is heading for moderation, not a recession.
The bear market has been created
This Stock Market Reset Requires Patience
Halloween is coming, but the goblins seem to have already arrived and lost their way into the stock market. And they're creating havoc! The relentless volatility and a drip of
A Federal Reserve Jolt
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent comments about future rate hikes are being perceived to be more hawkish.
With interest rate risk rising, short-term volatility has increased further in a
An Upheaval – Systematic Disciplined Thinkers Toll The Bell!
On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, deep thinkers predict a potential crisis that can lead to social and political upheavals.
Monetary policy will be a key
Small Cap Stocks Are Rising. Biotechs Can’t Be Far Behind!
While much attention is being riveted on the S&P 500 new all-time high eclipsing the January one, small cap stocks accomplished that in May.
Small cap stocks are in
Second Half Stock Market Outlook: What Now After Double-Digit Gains?
Earnings fountain created many opportunities in the first-half, even though index returns were relatively restrained.
During the first-half, the market overcame a tide of negative sentiment, including a breaking
A Short Case For A Longer Term
The stock market is volatile but still rewarding
Most investors should favor a longer-term time frame as the stock market again records new highs after recovering from the first quarter
Small Caps Charge Bodes Well For The Stock Market
Small cap stocks record fresh all-time highs leading the broader market indexes higher for the first time in a couple of years
Small cap performance suggests an underlying risk
Small Cap Stocks: The Bright Spot In A Challenging Market
Stock market volatility is disruptive but has not damaged the markets
Key supports remain favorable for the primary uptrend
Growing political risk is a bigger threat to the market
Stock Market: It’s Not Over Yet
Stock market gored by a sharp spike in yields.
Rising inflationary expectations feed into the fear of an aggressive monetary policy beyond current expectation.
A cyclical adjustment as we
When The Bulls Growl & The Bears Moo! Stock Market Outlook 2018
Stocks remain in a major uptrend. Staying the course worked great in 2017 and remains an effective strategy even now.
Witnessing a renewal of business cycle expansion, which can
Investor Biases. Be Aware!
November 14, 2017
We can be irrational investors and have to be aware of our biases.
Investing biases can cost us significant returns over time.
Group Thinking, Loss Aversion, and
Systematic Investing Works!
November 07, 2017
Systematic Investing, using quantitative models, continues to grow as it addresses key drawback of active investing - behavioral biases
Behavioral economics continues to provide growing evidence of
The Small Cap Rush!
October 10, 2017
After a sleepy start, small cap stocks have turned up the heat.
Corporate tax cut proposal triggered the rally.
The enduring power of small cap relative outperformance
Move Over Yellen! It’s Tax Cut Time!
September 29, 2017
Yellen remains steadfast on the interest rate path
Stock market takes the higher probability of December rate rise in its stride
The health care repeals effort fizzle
Will The Federal Reserve Send The Market Higher?
September 19, 2017
Federal Reserve begins an important meeting on Tuesday with implications for the stock market
Start date for the Balance Sheet Rollback program to be announced
Federal Reserve's
A Partial Stock Market Eclipse Maybe, But Not A Total One!
August 30, 2017
Entering a period of elevated risk from unrealized policy expectations, budget ceiling debate, and Federal Reserve's quantitative easing reversal
September and October are the months to be
Monetary Policy Reset At The Federal Reserve
Monetary policy became more aggressive last month with the announcement of the balance sheet normalization program
Emerging evidence now points to a willingness to reconsider further rate increases based
Will The Federal Reserve Avoid A Slowdown?
June 29, 2017
Market fundamentals remain stable with earnings momentum and a steady economy
Monetary policy experiencing a material change as the Federal Reserve outlined a program to reverse quantitative
Lessons from a Trump Presidency
May 16, 2017
Controversies are now typical of the new Trump administration.
In spite of jolting political news, the market remains in a steady uptrend.
Earnings and growth trump
Is The Stock Market’s Hour Up?
April 26, 2017
Market professionals are suggesting an imminent correction for some time.
Key measures are indicating overvaluation.
But the market still marches on.
Market Timing is a costly exercise,
The Relentless Stock Market And Missed Calls!
March 24, 2017
Brilliant professional money managers fail in their market timing.
For individuals it is even harder to engage in market timing.
An eye on the three key supports
Buffett Makes It Clear!
Buffett's Recent Investments Suggest Confidence In Economic Growth.
The Economy Has Legs and So Does the Market.
Uninterrupted Market Rise Raises Probability of A Normal Pullback.
Even Though March
The Stock Market Is Heading Higher
February 08, 2017
A change of administration typically means new policies that impact economic growth
The first two weeks of the new administration have been fairly controversial
The stock market
Small Cap Stocks Breathe Fire!
January 22, 2017
Small Cap stocks had a strong 2016 after a slow start
The enduring power of Small Cap performance over years should factor into portfolio decisions
Investors must
Legendary Investor Had An Unlikely Tough 2016 – 1% Return!
January 18, 2017
Steve Cohen is one of the most successful hedge fund managers of the last 25 years. His firm, Point72 Asset Management, had a difficult last year as the
Still Waiting For A Correction? Stock Market Outlook For 2017
December 20, 2016
Investors have been fairly cautious in the second-half, with money managers and analysts predicting an imminent correction.
All key constructs of stock market valuation have continued to
Living In A Drawdown State – 60% Of The Time
Drawdowns are inevitable and more common than investors realize.
Nearly two-thirds of the time a portfolio will be in a Drawdown, referred to as a State of Regret.
Nearly
Return Of The Fundamentals – 3 Reasons For Stocks To Head Higher
November 11, 2017
Economy and earnings can't be ignored.
Monetary policy remains accommodative.
Investor sentiment has improved markedly towards assuming risk in stocks.
Higher stock prices and new stock market highs expected
It may be instructive to keep
Madam Or Mister President – Pricing A Presidency
November 5, 2016
The stock market begins to factor in a non-Clinton Presidency.
Late momentum allows Trump to close gap with Clinton, forcing the stock market to recalibrate.
A spurt
The State Of The Market 7 Days Before Elections
November 1, 2016
Earnings are coming in better than expected by the stock market, with the S&P 500 companies reversing an over year-long decline during Q3 itself.
The final hustle
Trading Strategy Exacerbates Market Turmoil
October 17, 2016
Recently, Robin Wigglesworth of Financial Times wrote an interesting article about some automated systematic investing strategies being pursued by institutions that add to the volatility in the stock
It’s October, And The Stock Market Has Not Given Up Yet!
OCTOBER 13, 2016
Attention shifts from US elections towards earnings
Third quarter earnings to be supportive of stock valuations
Monetary policy to assume greater importance later in November
Uptrend remains
Hedge Fund Legend Notes Industry’s Hard Struggle To Generate Returns
SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
Julian Robertson, a legendary hedge fund manager who founded one of the most successful hedge funds, Tiger Management, noted in a recent Bloomberg interview that the industry faces
Federal Reserve Policy Bolsters Case To Stay With Stocks
SEPTEMBER 23, 2016
The case for staying the course with stocks was bolstered following the FED's ongoing pause.
As earnings season arrives, technology to power Nasdaq Higher.
October can see
Understanding Our Investing Biases – Part 2
SEPTEMBER 21, 2016
Investors are not rational and have to deal with biases.
Investing biases can cost us significant return over time.
Disposition, Confirmation, and Anchoring are few other biases
Understanding Our Investing Biases – Part 1
SEPTEMBER 17, 2017
Investors are not rational and have to deal with biases.
Investing biases can cost us significant return over time.
Loss Aversion, Confidence, and Bandwagon are few of
Staying The Course!
Stocks Remain Attractive
SEPTEMBER 13, 2016
Federal Reserve to shift out any monetary policy change to December or beyond.
A pre-emptive increase can turn the intended medicine to poison.
Volatility to remain elevated
Why UBS Is Hiring So Many Quants?
SEPTEMBERÂ 12, 2016
This recent headline on Bloomberg caught my attention.
"There's a Simple Reason Why UBS Is Hiring So Many Quants"
The Swiss financial giant UBS Group, which oversees nearly $2 trillion, has
Active Management Loses Ground
SEPTEMBER 09, 2016
Most Active Managers Are Unable to Outperform benchmark S&P500
Small-cap managers face an even more uphill battle with 90% underperforming S&P600
There is room to consider model-based
With Market At All-Time Highs,
September Can Be A Month Of Consolidation
AUGUST 9, 2016
Markets have overcome systemic shocks to record all-time highs.
Rally has begin to shift towards being earnings-driven as well, rather than being interest-rate driven.
September could be
Smallcap Stocks are Charging Ahead
JULY 14, 2016
Small-cap stocks have risen strongly from their February lows
Risk appetite remains strong, and portfolio exposure to this dynamic segment is prudent
Favorable Fed policy and signs
Brexit Doesn’t Mean An Exit On Stocks
JUNE 30, 2016
Interest Rates to Remain Lower for Longer
Economic Growth was Stronger in Q1 than Expected
Even though Brexit Puts Pressure on Global Growth, How Much and When
It’s The Fed’s Move Once Again
Federal Reserve will update its âdot plotâ to reflect the median rate hikes for 2016, and that number is widely expected to come down to 3 from 4
A
The Fed’s Done For Now – Market And Smallcap Viewpoint For 2016
We anticipate the market decline to provide fresh legs for a new rally later in the first quarter and early second quarter
For the year, we anticipate a positive
The Song Of The Fed: Market Outlook And Smallcap Commentary
SEPTEMBER 16, 2015
The market expectation we laid out in our January 2015 commentary and reiterated in April 2015 second quarter commentary was borne out from late-June through August.
As
Viewpoint: Stock Market Outlook And Smallcap Performance In 2015
Small cap stocks underperformed significantly during 2014, compared to larger caps.
As the US economy strengthens while key international economies struggle, small caps are well-positioned.
We anticipate small caps