Graycell Advisors - US Stock Market

The Relentless Stock Market And Missed Calls!

March 24, 2017

  • Brilliant professional money managers fail in their market timing.
  • For individuals it is even harder to engage in market timing.
  • An eye on the three key supports for the stock market can be helpful.
  • The market may be closer to a pullback, but the Bull is not ready to rollover yet.
Graycell Advisors - Dilbert Stock Market Cartoon

The Precarious Market! Or is it?


Since last year, there have been a number of prognostications on the precarious state of the stock market.

And these have been wrong!

Even legendary figures with prescient calls earlier have erred and most likely suffered in returns from their predictions.

Noting the recent run-up in the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index while economic growth remains weak and corporate earnings are stagnant, Gundlach said stock investors have entered a "world of uber complacency. The artist Christopher Wool has a word painting, 'Sell the house, sell the car, sell the kids.' That's exactly how I feel - sell everything. Nothing here looks good. The stock markets should be down massively but investors seem to have been hypnotized that nothing can go wrong." Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital, ~$100 billion hedge fund, May 2016

We believe we are in the midst of the market correction we have been expecting. It will likely persist over the next 3-4 months and be the largest correction since the 2008 crisis." Robert Citrone, Discovery Capital, ~$12 billion macro hedge fund, September 2016

Easing had created "a very dangerous time in the global economy and global financial markets." Paul Singer, Elliott Capital, ~$27 billion hedge fund, CNBC Delivering Alpha Conference, September 2016

In a warning that the post-vote rally is losing steam, "There is going to be a buyer's remorse period." Jeffrey Gundlach, December 2016

The stock market rally since the November election, spurred by Trump's promises to slash regulations and boost spending, will come to a halt according to George Soros. "Uncertainty is at a peak, and actually uncertainty is the enemy of long-term investment." George Soros, Soros Fund Management, ~$28 billion macro hedge fund, January 2017

These are just a few notable investors whose market prediction calls have not quite worked out yet even though they presented reasonable arguments.

The rest of the article can be read on Seeking Alpha.

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